Reflections on Election Day

(Warning, seriously geeky political post below.  Normal service (err, that's more of the same then...) to resume tomorrow).  

I'm safely in DC for my final stop before coming home and back to reality.  Despite probably the second worst hangover of the whole trip (see here for the day after the worst) I was incredibly excited to get to the nation's capital especially after such a great result for Obama and the Democrats last night.  

Thought I'd do a post looking at some of the election results that I saw some of in my travels and also look at why the Republicans had such a terrible night.  

I had a slightly odd election night - I spent it in Nashville which was a late addition to my schedule and was at a dinner at The Standard Club.  You can probably guess from the website that there weren't many members of the Revolutionary Communist Party in the house that night and I was the token liberal at the table.  I was meeting with Doug Tatum who is a long standing friend of the Roosevelt Scholarship and having read his book, 'No Man's Land' I was intrigued to be meeting him.  There were a few other people at dinner from a diversity of backgrounds and we had a good discussion about the election and business - but I think I was always on a losing wicket being 4-1 against when we got into the real political stuff.  Think I acquitted myself reasonably well however.  

I then moved on to the Fleet Street Pub.  I usually avoid these kind of 'British bars' like the plague but I'd seen that Drinking Liberally were having their election watching party there so I knew that I'd be among kindred spirits.  Obviously it was a totally phenomenal result - far better than my (amateur) predictions and a great night.  The atmosphere in the pub wasn't as electric as you might expect - there was a kind of resigned relief rather than anything else - people had been reading the polls (see below) and hoping for best and the result was a cathartic relief rather than anything else.  

A few of the races and initiatives I've been following;

- Michigan Collective Bargaining.  This initiative, which failed, would have enshrined in the state constitution the right for trade unions to collectively bargain.  Passing this initiative was a very high priority for the UFCW colleagues that I met in Detroit and I'm gutted for them - I know how hard they were working.  The only positive thing is that the status-quo is kind-of ok - ie unions are able to bargain with employers and no-one is actively threatening to take that away like in Wisconsin so fingers crossed that things muddle along.  

- Washington gay Marriage.  On a more positive note, I'm delighted that this initiative to legalise gay marriage passed in Washington.  From a purely ideological point of view I firmly believe in the right of any couple, whatever their genders, to marry if that's what they want, but one of my Servas hosts in Seattle was a gay couple so here's to Sara and Rebecca - many congratulations on your upcoming nuptials!  

- Minnesota.  Again a great result on initiatives - rejecting restrictions on voter participation and gay marriage.  See some thoughts here on my experience of the election day process - asking for more ID can only harm this.  And a strong return to office for Rep. Keith Ellison who was kind enough to host me for a day in Minneapolis - what a guy!

- Montana Senate.  For some reason I've always been a fan of Senator Jon Tester.  I first came across him in 2006 via Daily Kos and I've always been a fan of his plain-spoken plaid shirted image so I was chuffed to see that he retained his seat.  Having travelled across most of Montana on the train my admiration for his ability to retain what is a very rural seat (great quote here: A profile of Tester after his 2006 election described his as "truly your grandfather's Democrat—a pro-gun, anti-big-business prairie pragmatist whose life is defined by the treeless patch of hard Montana dirt that has been in the family since 1916") for the Democrats and promulgate a broadly progressive agenda has only increased.  

Now as to how Obama won and why so many people thought he wouldn't I've just got a couple of comments.  

1) This isn't new or original, but the strength of Obama for America's GOTV and "ground game" was obviously decisive.  And it looks like a laser-like focus on places like Cuyahoga County in Ohio (basically, Cleveland and its suburbs) paid off in spades.  

2) The revelation for me on election night was the amount of self-delusional thinking around 'skewed polls'.  A quick detour before we get into this.  Many people will recognise the concept of group think and the 'echo chamber' where you end up believing your original opinions even more fervently when you discuss it with people of similar views.  And I'm as guilty of this as anyone - I socialise and work with people of very similar views and so always come up with a start when I meet people who fundamentally disagree with my views and almost forget why I believe what I do.  And so it's perhaps not a surprise that I hadn't come across the idea of Skewed Polling which apparently had been a common discussion point amongst Republicans for the last six or eight weeks.  The basic theory is that the public polls (which had been showing small but significant leads for the President in all the swing states for the last couple of weeks at least) were oversampling Democrats and were based on a 2008 turnout model.  This was all total news to me at dinner on Election night but I was firmly told by the Republicans present that Romney was going to comfortably win and that the polls were all 'skewed' (classic group-think).  This line of thinking generated a whole industry of recalibrating the polls - eg UnSkewed Polls.  (As an aside, it should be noted that the polling companies (like YouGov, MORI etc) many no money (or make a loss) on political polling - they do it to create publicity and as a loss-leader for more lucrative commercial work - so they stake a lot of credibility and future commercial work on getting it right and have little incentive to do anything other than report the truth as they find it).  This belief in Skewed Polls is a great example of group think and somewhat delusional self-belief - great summary from a friend here.  

3) The Republican ticket from top to bottom was pretty poor.  Romney was robotic and walked into stupid own-goals over not releasing his tax returns.  But the real issue was the terrible Senate candidates.  Again, a well-worked theme so I'll just link to a couple of articles that summarise it well: Akin and Mourdock on rape and a more general summary

Phew.  Ok, stopping now.  In summary: Obama won because they had a good plan and operation; some good results on gay rights and for unusual Democrats; trust the polling data; Republicans are terrible at selecting candidates. 

Election Day

Pretty clear that you need ID to vote here then!

Finally it's here - polling day.  After months of campaigning, thousands of speeches and untold millions of dollars it's all happening today.  I just got back from the polling station at Pickens County, Georgia where I'm staying.  I was keen to see what the elections process is like here in the US compared with the experience in the UK so I jumped at the chance to accompany my host family to the polling station.  The people I'm staying with were keen to get there as early as possible so I dragged myself out of bed at 6am which is about the earliest I've got up this whole trip - good practice for being back at work I guess!

First thing to note is that as a US voter you don't get a polling card each election like we do in the UK - this explains for me some of the issues with people not knowing if they are registered to vote or not knowing where to got to vote: has spawned a whole set of websites to help people locate their polling station.  As a political activist in the UK you spend a lot of time telling people who've lost their polling card that it doesn't matter and they can still vote without it, but I think I like the security and simplicity of the system we have that means you know you're registered to vote before you make the trip out to the polling station. And although I laugh when I get my card at home which has a detailed map to help me navigate the 400metres to my polling station up at the WinWood Community Centre, it's better to have that than turn up at the wrong place (see below).  

The second thing is that you have to show some form of ID to vote here in Georgia (see main photo).  This is interesting because of the work that Rep. Keith Ellison is doing in Minnesota to prevent just such a thing being required there.  I'm a bit conflicted on this one - I think it's odd that in the UK you can just turn up and say your (or any) name and address and they'll dish out a ballot paper, but I know that any kind of restrictions will fall disproportionately on the most excluded in society already - the poor, the old and minorities.  And based on my experience this morning further restrictions will reduce turnout and suppress participation which has got to be a bad thing.  

(As an aside, I was pleased to notice that one thing was exactly the same as the UK - the somewhat matriarchal poll staff who were very suspicious of my presence and almost asked me to wait outside in the rain). 

All throughout the process there were a lot of queues.  Now I'm British so that means I automatically like queues but this was a bit ridiculous!  You had to queue to get a form to complete certifying that you were a legitimate voter and not disqualified - again this is often seen as a form of voter suppression and it was somewhat fearsome. 

Once you've filled in the form mentioned above you queue up to get your ID checked and be issued with your ballot.  The elections office here have eschewed the tried and tested method of using a piece of paper and a pencil that has worked so well in the UK for many decades and use a complicated system of touch screen computers.  I was therefore able to be very smug when the system crashed and refused to work.  I said (perhaps little too loudly...) to those around me: "a pencil never ran out of power or crashed!".  

The queue to get your ID checked and be issued with a "ballot"

Once the computers were coaxed into life the (by now somewhat testy) queue started moving relatively quickly.  (One guy when I was there had turned up at the wrong polling station - he needed to be in the next county.  He claimed to have voted here in the primaries so wasn't happy but the staff sent him away never-the-less.  I hope he got a chance to vote somewhere!  The staff member actually used the phrase, "the computer says no" - obviously this is a cultural thing as I was the only person to laugh at this point). When you got to the head of the line your ID was scanned (everyone used their driving license - but other forms were acceptable - not sure how they would "scan" them if they didn't have a barcode) and you were given a sort of credit-card with a chip on it that you took over to the main voting action.  

I say you took it over, another poll worker took it from you and escorted you over to the main machines.  This was a bit odd, not sure why this was the case.  I wouldn't want that card (which activated the machines and linked my vote to my ID) out of my sight!  Maybe I'm just paranoid!

You can just see the row of 5 or 6 touchscreen machines - sorry, not very good photo

At this point I obviously stepped away so that I didn't compromise the security of anyone's vote but I imagine that the screens then show you a series of ballot options and you press your choices.  I know that you don't get any kind of confirmation or receipt which is odd as this would be easy enough to produce I'm sure.  

I managed to grab a sample ballot which I've photographed and put here - main thing to notice is how big it is.  I got a similar document when I was in Detroit which was even longer - no wonder turnout is so low when this is what you get confronted with. I'm not sure that even I could summon the energy to get enthused about choosing which person I wanted to be County Coroner or Limestone Valley Soil and Water Conservation District Supervisor (actually, it looks like even the candidates couldn't get enthused as no-one has stood for that position!).
 

Page One of the Ballot

Page Two of the Ballot

An early start but I was very glad to have the chance to experience an authentic polling day operation here in rural Georgia - hope the GOTV is going well for the Obama teams in the key swing states!

Georgia On My Mind

(I promise the terrible punning blog post titles will end soon)

I'm in Jasper, Georgia staying the some contacts made through the Roosevelt Scholarship and I've been made to feel incredibly welcome - all you hear about Southern hospitality is totally true.  I arrived on Friday night sorry to leave Bentonville and North-West Arkansas but I've hardly stopped since so I've not had any time to feel sad about my trip nearly coming to an end.  

I'm staying out in Jasper, Georgia which is about an hour from Atlanta and is the home of the Georgia Marble Company - I'm in a company town without even planning it!  The marble from here was used to make the Lincoln Memorial which I'll be seeing in a few days.  The trainline to and from the quarry runs just past the home where I'm staying and I can hear a train clicking past as I type this. 

On Saturday we went to the annual Chomp and Stomp festival in Atlanta - a mixture of beer festival, running event, live music and lots and lots of chilli.  We were able to sample a lot (a lot!) of chilli and I also tried some of the beers from Sweet Water Brewery from Atlanta - I can recommend the IPA in particular.  It was a really warm and sunny day and I could have stayed from much longer, but we were on something of a packed schedule.  I really liked the atmosphere in the neighbourhood that the festival was held - a place called Cabbagetown - it felt a bit like Sherwood in Nottingham: lots of independent businesses, people really engaged in their community and some great green spaces - the kind of place that I like to live! 

People enjoying the early Autumn sun

That is a lot of chilli that's been eaten!

We had to dash off to make sure that we got to Stone Mountain in time.  This is an enormous granite monolith which would be impressive enough but it also has a huge carving of three Confederate commanders in the side to commemorate the American Civil War.  The surrounding park was quite Disney-fied but the mountain itself was pretty spectacular especially the walk down (we took the cable car up!) to ground level.  A great view of Atlanta and the surrounding suburbs.  

A not very good picture of the carving.  The white mound to the left is a man-made ski-run...

Today (Sunda) was a long trip again to see the Little White House at Warm Springs.  This was where Franklin Roosevelt went to get relief from the debilitating effects of Polio and ended up living and working here - it was whilst meeting local people here that he was prompted to develop progressive policies like the New Deal, rural electrification and the Public Works Act. 

A pretty humble house, even for the 1930s. 

The museum here is really impressive - telling a lot of the story of FDR and his work plus what his life was like down here.  You can also travel to the original springs and bathing area where FDR found relief and also prompted the research that ultimately led to the discovery of the vaccine for Polio and its virtual elimination.  I've always been a fan but today really opened up a different side of the man and his work. 

Tomorrow I'm meeting with Coca-Cola at the 'World of Coke' in downtown Atlanta - worried that my Diet Coke addiction might get out of hand once I'm left to roam freely in that place...